Pokemon Card Pull Rates Explained - What Are Your Odds of Pulling a Chase Card?

What Are Pull Rates?

Pull rates refer to the statistical probability of finding a specific card rarity in a booster pack. The Pokemon Company doesn't officially publish exact pull rates, but the community has compiled reliable estimates from thousands of pack openings.

Understanding pull rates helps you set realistic expectations when opening packs and evaluate whether buying sealed product or singles is the better investment.

Cards You're Trying to Pull

These are the chase cards that drive pack openings. Understanding your odds helps set realistic expectations:

Umbreon VMAX

Rayquaza VMAX

Charizard

Umbreon

Lugia

Scarlet & Violet Era Pull Rates

The Scarlet & Violet series introduced a new rarity system. Here are the estimated pull rates per booster pack for modern sets:

Standard Booster Pack (10 cards)

• Double Rare (ex cards): ~1 in 5.5 packs
• Ultra Rare (Full Art): ~1 in 18 packs
• Illustration Rare: ~1 in 20 packs
• Special Illustration Rare (SIR): ~1 in 60-80 packs
• Hyper Rare (Gold): ~1 in 80-100 packs

What This Means Per Booster Box (36 packs)

• Double Rares: Expect 5-7 per box
• Ultra Rares: Expect 1-2 per box
• Illustration Rares: Expect 1-2 per box
• Special Illustration Rares: Expect 0-1 per box (not guaranteed)
• Hyper Rares: Expect 0-1 per box (not guaranteed)

Older Era Pull Rates

Sword & Shield Era

• V cards: ~1 in 4-5 packs
• VMAX cards: ~1 in 20 packs
• VSTAR cards: ~1 in 18 packs
• Alternate Art: ~1 in 50-70 packs
• Rainbow Rare: ~1 in 70-90 packs
• Gold Secret Rare: ~1 in 80+ packs

Vintage (WOTC Era)

• Holographic Rare: ~1 in 3 packs (but only 16 holos per set)
• Specific holo (e.g., Charizard): ~1 in 48 packs (1 in 3 holos x 16 different holos)

How to Use Pull Rate Data

Buying Sealed vs Singles

If the specific card you want has a pull rate of 1 in 70 packs, and packs cost $4 each, you'd spend an average of $280 before pulling it. If the card sells for $100 as a single, buying the single is clearly more cost-effective.

Check current singles prices on our price guide and compare against the cost of packs.

Booster Box EV Calculation

To calculate expected value (EV) of a booster box:

• Multiply each rarity's pull rate by the average value of cards at that rarity
• Sum all expected values
• Compare against box cost

Read our booster box buying guide for detailed EV analysis of current sets.

Pull Rate Myths

• "God packs" are guaranteed per case: False. While some sets have God Packs (all rare), they're random and not guaranteed per case.
• "Heavier packs have holos": This hasn't been true since early WOTC era. Modern packs have consistent weights regardless of contents.
• "First pack in a box is always good": Pure superstition. Pack position has no correlation with contents.
• "Certain stores get better boxes": False. Distribution is random from the manufacturer.

The best way to know what you have is to scan your cards and check real-time market values. Browse all Pokemon TCG sets to understand what's available in each expansion.